气候变化与健康日益成为国内外关注的热门话题。应对气候变化健康风险成为公共卫生领域面临的重大挑战与发展机遇，而开展气候变化健康风险评估是进行有效应对的基础。目前国内外已广泛开展气候变化对人类健康的影响研究，并形成了一套科学的理论和方法体系。本书将系统总结气候变化与健康研究领域前沿且成熟的方法，并依托具体的案例详细介绍各个方法的实际应用，以指导国内研究人员开展气候变化健康领域的科学研究。
本书由13个章节组成，内容主要包括：气候变化与健康领域常用分析方法理论以及实际应用，包括了基于时间序列数据的关联分析方法、空间分析方法、气候变化影响人群健康的脆弱性评估以及未来气候变化对人群健康影响的预估方法等。
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目 录
第 1 章 绪论 ····················································································· 1
1.1 引言 ···················································································· 1
1.1.1 天气、气候、气候变化与极端事件 ······················································ 1
1.1.2 温室气体排放情景 ··········································································· 2
1.2 气候变化基本事实 ·································································· 2
1.2.1 全球气候变化现状 ··········································································· 2
1.2.2 中国气候变化现状 ··········································································· 3
1.3 气候变化健康风险 ·································································· 4
1.3.1 气候变化影响人群健康的机制路径 ······················································ 4
1.3.2 气候变化对全球人群健康的影响 ························································· 4
1.3.3 气候变化对我国人群健康的影响 ························································· 6
1.4 气候变化健康风险评估方法 ······················································ 8
1.4.1 研究设计 ······················································································· 8
1.4.2 暴露评估 ····················································································· 10
1.4.3 暴露-反应关系评价 ········································································ 11
1.4.4 归因风险评价 ··············································································· 12
1.4.5 脆弱性评估 ·················································································· 13
1.4.6 基于气候变化情景的未来风险预估 ···················································· 13
参考文献 ···················································································· 14
第 2 章 时间序列分析方法 ·································································· 16
2.1 引言 ··················································································· 16
2.1.1 用于预测的时间序列分析 ································································ 16
2.1.2 用于关联性研究的时间序列分析 ······················································· 17
2.2 时间序列分析常用数据资源 ····················································· 19
2.2.1 数据资源类型及获取途径 ································································ 19
2.2.2 数据处理 ····················································································· 20
2.3 常用分析方法和研究设计 ························································ 20
2.3.1 分布滞后非线性模型 ······································································ 20
2.3.2 断点时间序列 ··············································································· 21
·ii· 气候变化健康风险评估方法与应用
2.3.3 双重差分方法 ··············································································· 22
2.3.4 时间分层的病例交叉研究 ································································ 23
2.3.5 单纯病例研究 ··············································································· 23
2.4 小结 ··················································································· 24
参考文献 ···················································································· 24
第 3 章 地理信息分析方法 ·································································· 27
3.1 引言 ··················································································· 27
3.2 地理信息分析方法与健康研究进展概述 ······································ 27
3.2.1 地理信息系统与健康研究 ································································ 28
3.2.2 遥感与健康研究 ············································································ 30
3.2.3 空间和时空分析与健康研究 ····························································· 32
3.3 暴露评价方法 ······································································· 45
3.4 高风险聚集区识别 ································································· 47
3.5 空间异质性与驱动因子识别 ····················································· 48
3.6 小结 ··················································································· 49
参考文献 ···················································································· 50
第 4 章 基于 DLNM 方法分析气温对多地区人群死亡的影响 ······················ 53
4.1 引言 ··················································································· 53
4.2 方法学现状与进展 ································································· 54
4.3 基于多地区数据评估全国气温与死亡的非线性关系研究 ················· 56
4.3.1 案例简介 ····················································································· 56
4.3.2 数据收集 ····················································································· 56
4.3.3 描述性分析 ·················································································· 58
4.3.4 确定基本模型和参数 ······································································ 59
4.3.5 基于 DLNM 的二阶段分析方法 ························································· 60
4.4 小结 ··················································································· 63
参考文献 ···················································································· 64
第 5 章 基于广义相加模型分析极端天气事件对人群发病的影响 ·················· 66
5.1 引言 ·················
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